AI will eat a fifth of tech budgets in 2027, but don't expect it to pay for itself

More than half of CIOs are likely to miss their AI-related ROI targets next year, according to Forrester.

The analyst firm's State Of AI Survey 2026 found that 45 percent of AI decision-makers need positive ROI within a year to consider their investments successful.

Some tech leaders will get better at tying AI spend to planned returns. However, Forrester expects success to be confined to isolated use cases rather than whole programs, which won't be enough.

“As with prior emerging technologies, organizational structures, processes, and ways of working need to change to drive measurable, firmwide results with AI,” the report says.

Only 22 percent of AI decision-makers report a positive AI impact on EBITDA (earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortization) over the past 12 months.

“This mismatch between the investment into technology adoption and organizational change will delay the realization of heightened ROI targets,” the report adds.

The money will keep flowing through IT budgets regardless. …